Epidemiology of ALS in south-eastern Spain

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Introduction This is a well-done study of ALS patients, but it will not provide new information to specialists in the field.

The survival time of patients after a diagnosis of ALS is variable, although death generally occurs about 2 to 5 years after the onset of symptoms, with a mean survival of 20 to 50 months, and only about 5 to 10% of those affected survive 10 years or more. In addition, earlier age at symptom onset and diagnosis, spinal onset, higher initial ALSFRS-R score, or higher body mass index (BMI) have been associated with longer survival. In contrast, older age, bulbar onset, cognitive impairment or depression, and poorer nutritional status are associated with shorter survival.

Although several authors have described the clinical and epidemiological characteristics and factors related to the survival of patients with ALS, few studies have been conducted in the Spanish population. This study is therefore one of the few to evaluate the epidemiological and clinical characteristics and prognostic factors of ALS in Spain, and it provides similar results to previous population studies.

A population-based registry data analysis over a long study period provides up-to-date, representative, and complete information on patients with ALS, which is useful for planning the necessary resources for affected individuals and their families. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the incidence and prevalence of patients with ALS, as well as their main characteristics, and to analyze the factors associated with the evolution and survival of these individuals using information from the Rare Disease Registry in the Region of Murcia (RM), located in the southeast of Spain.

Study population

An observational study was conducted on patients with a confirmed or probable diagnosis of ALS according to the El Escorial criteria and registered in the Rare Disease Information System (SIER) of the RM from January 2008 to December 2021. The data collected from each patient included the following:

  • Data include gender, country of birth, date of birth, death of the patient (yes/no) and date of death.
  • Family history of the disease, i.e. those including a family member with a diagnosis of ALS. The associated genetic mutation was collected in patients who underwent genetic study.
  • Characteristics included year of diagnosis, date of symptom onset, and initial disease presentation (bulbar, spinal, bulbospinal, or respiratory). Time from symptom onset to diagnosis (years) and from symptom onset to death (years) were also recorded.
  • Initial clinical manifestations collected were: muscle weakness (cervical, upper limbs, lower limbs, or both), dysarthria, dysphagia, dyspnea, gait alteration and clumsiness, muscle atrophy (upper limbs, lower limbs, or all limbs), muscle cramps, loss of dexterity, fasciculations (lingual, upper limbs, lower limbs, mixed), spasticity, and emotional lability (Citation35).
  • Information on riluzole treatment, family support, palliative care, and the patient's last wishes were obtained. Finally, data were collected on the recognition of disability and/or dependency.

Statistical analysis

Demographic, genetic, and clinical characteristics of people with ALS were summarized using descriptive statistics. In addition, different hypothesis contrast tests were used depending on the type of variables and the normality of their data distribution. Survival was calculated from the age of symptom onset to the age of death (end event) or until December 31, 2021, or until loss to follow-up.

Results

781 cases of ALS were recorded in the SIER, 508 were of which were classified as confirmed or probable cases, including 374 incidents from 2008 to 2021.

The standardized incidence rate (SIR) was approximately 2/100,000 person-years. It was higher in men than in women. An increase in incidence was observed with age, with a maximum of data between 75 and 84 years, followed by an overall decrease. However, in men, the highest incidence was in the 65-74 age group. enter image description here Throughout the study, incidence rates ranged from 2/100,000 person-years in 2008 to 2.77/100,000 in 2021), with the latter year being the year with the highest incidence recorded.

There was a family history of the disease in 28 patients (7.5%). Among patients for whom information on the causative genetic mutation was available, 55.5% were associated with the C9orf72 gene, 22.2% with the FUS gene, and the remaining 22.2% with other genes.

According to the site of onset, spinal ALS was predominant in half of the patients, followed by bulbar ALS in one-third of the cases. Dual pathologies (bulbar and spinal) were considerably less frequent and cases where the onset of the disease was characterized by respiratory symptoms were rare. In the remaining 8.3% of the cases, this information was not available.

The more frequent site of onset in men was spinal ALS, while in women it was bulbar ALS but less clearly. In analyses by age group, spinal onset predominated up to 74 years, after which bulbar onset had the highest incidence.

The mean time from symptom onset to diagnosis was less than 1 year, with no significant differences between the sexes. However, when analyzed by site of onset (bulbar or spinal), the diagnostic delay was slightly shorter for bulbar ALS.

Overall, the most common clinical manifestations at disease onset were muscle weakness (71.1%), followed by fasciculations (66.0%), muscle atrophy (61.2%), and gait alteration/clumsiness (53.0%). Patients with bulbar ALS had more dysarthria and dysphagia as their initial symptom (over 80% in both cases), while those classified as spinal ALS had mainly muscle weakness, atrophy, fasciculations, and gait alteration/clumsiness.

Interestingly, only 9 out of 10 patients were treated with riluzole, and more distressingly, less than half of the cases had their disability recognized. The average time from diagnosis of ALS to recognition of disability was one year, and the average time to dependency was one and a half years.

Half of the patients received palliative care, three-quarters of them had family support, and more than a third recorded their last wishes. Among these, most of them refused to receive palliative measures but accepted final sedation, while 15% of them on the contrary accepted any measure that could have prolonged their life.

During the study period, 297 people died (8 out of 10), half of them were men, and the average age at death was 70 years, without significant differences between genders.

The mean number of years between the onset of symptoms and death was 2.6 and the median was 2 years (there were more early deaths than deaths after these two years). 85% of patients survived more than 1 year after diagnosis, 12% more than 5 years, and 1% more than 10 years, which is lower than the 5 to 10% reported by other authors.

Rethinking phase 2 trials in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

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Here is a summary of an interesting article on how ALS clinical trials could be improved.

Introduction

Clinical trials typically proceed sequentially, through early, middle, and late phases, often referred to as Phases 1, 2, and 3. Phase 2 trials are generally designed to gather information about the safety, tolerability, and dosing of an experimental treatment, and to determine whether the therapeutic agent shows sufficient promise to warrant further study in a large, randomized, controlled Phase 3 study. In the field of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), approximately several dozen drugs showed “promise” in phase 2 but failed in phase 3.

Much has been written about the many potential reasons why so many trials have led to so few effective treatments and how we might learn from this experience.

Duration

Historically, phase 2 trials in ALS have varied in duration, but a 6-month placebo-controlled phase followed by an open-label extension (OLE) seems to have become a common standard, for example the Healey Platform trial. The phase 3 VALOR study of tofersen in SOD1 ALS provides useful information on the length of time needed for a clinical trial in ALS. In this 6-month trial, significant reductions in CSF SOD1 protein levels (a marker of target engagement) and plasma neurofilament light chain (NfL) (a marker of axonal degeneration rate) were observed at 12 weeks. A meaningful clinical benefit did not emerge until 12 months in an integrated analysis of double-blind and open-label extension (OLE) data.

The long latency is notable given that the SOD1 ASO targets a biological mechanism that causes disease. This study showed that clinical benefits may take time to be detectable. Longer treatment periods may be required for clinical effects to become apparent for therapies that target more downstream biological mechanisms.

The VALOR study also showed that a significant reduction in NfL was detected over a shorter time period than meaningful clinical effects, providing an early confidence signal, later reflected in the FDA’s groundbreaking recognition of NfL as a “reasonable surrogate marker predicting clinical benefit in ALS” in its decision to grant accelerated approval to tofersen. The problem of a long latency to show clinical benefit is not unique to the ALSFRS-R.

A short study duration therefore risks missing potential delayed clinical effects, increasing the likelihood of a false negative result. This risk can be partially mitigated by implementing an OLE (non-randomized extended drug availability), which allows time for delayed effects to become evident during the extension phase. A long OLE, however, cannot fully compensate for a short placebo-controlled period.

But the longer the OLE period, the more similar the groups become, diluting a potentially effective treatment effect and possibly increasing the risk of statistical error. The results of these studies are confounded by incomplete follow-up, differences between completers and non-completers, and selection bias in those eligible for treatment.

Outcome measures

The ALSFRS-R measures the patient's functional independence with a set of activities that reflect bulbar, fine motor, gross motor, and respiratory muscle function. It is a relatively subjective measure of patient functioning, and a slower rate of decline, or a higher score, correlates with longer survival. The heterogeneity in the rate of disease progression among patients, manifested by enormous variation in the rate of change in the ALSFRS-R, generally makes phase 2 trials that rely on the ALSFRS-R or similar subjective measures of insignificance. The use of the ALSFRS-R is preferable in phase 3 trials that aim to answer questions of clinical efficacy.

In addition, the selection of the ALSFRS-R as the primary outcome measure for a phase 2 trial suggests a desire to demonstrate clinical efficacy. An overreliance on the ALSFRS-R as the primary outcome measure may also lead investigators to seek drug approval based on a single phase 2 trial of small size, as was the case for AMX0035.

If the ALSFRS-R is to be used in phase 2 trials, these results need to be supported by biomarkers, such as baseline blood NfL and the ENCALS prediction score. Although much is not yet known about NfL, it is undoubtedly one of the most promising candidates to date to help select participants for a phase 3 study.

Missing Data

For both trial duration and primary endpoint selection, the question arises as to how best to deal with missing data, whether due to death, treatment interruption, or patient “evaporation.”

Strategies such as the last observation carried forward (LOCF) used in the masitinib phase 2/3 trials, the edaravone phase 3 trials, and the post-hoc analyses of the CENTAUR AMX0035 trial data are subject to bias given the assumption that the outcome is constant after treatment is stopped. This is difficult to justify for diseases such as ALS, which are progressive over time, particularly when instruments such as the ALSFRS-R are used to measure the outcome.

This problem was well illustrated in the FDA’s analysis of the CENTAUR trial data, where differential treatment of deaths with accompanying missing data showed a loss of statistical significance.

The Dangers of Statistical Manipulation

Multiplicity is an important consideration in the analysis of clinical trial data. It occurs when multiple significance tests are performed, for example, opportunistic and dishonest selection of different outcomes such as measuring outcomes at multiple time points, using multiple doses, or different study populations and subgroups. Performing a statistical test at p < 0.05 has a 5% chance of finding a false positive on one type of measurement, but increases to 40% for performing ten statistical tests.

Interpretation and communication

The lack of biological and mechanistic information on many failed drugs significantly limits the lessons that can be learned from them.

The absence of primary and secondary outcomes in the main study population, but the discovery of a “hit” in one (or more) exploratory outcomes in a subpopulation, even if pre-specified, especially when financial considerations are taken into account, leads to a real risk of over-optimistic interpretation and unbalanced (and dishonest) communication of results. The release of the results of several recent trials provides a useful recent example.

Not only is there a risk that the discovery of false positives will encourage large, necessarily costly, and time-consuming phase 3 trials, but also a demand from patients for expanded access programs (EAPs) based on the promise of new and hypothetical therapies. Moreover, the appropriation of significant funds by political personnel for such purposes, motivated by “advocacy” by patient organizations and manipulation of opinion via social media, can divert valuable research funds from more promising therapeutic candidates and clinical trials. There is also a risk that the ALS community will be given false hopes about the potential clinical benefits of these investigational compounds based on minimal data.

Although "post-hoc" analysis of phase 2 trial data can sometimes lead to the generation of new hypotheses that could be tested in a future study, a distinction must be made between phase 3 trials that are based on a hypothesis that was tested in phase 2 and a hypothesis that was generated on the basis of phase 2 data and is, therefore, more fragile because it did not benefit from preclinical testing.

The risks associated with predicting phase 3 trials on the results of post-hoc exploratory analyses of phase 2 data are well illustrated by the experience with dexpramipexole, reldesemtiv, and NurOwn. Overreliance on clinical endpoints, short duration of placebo-controlled follow-up, and multiplicity, combined with overly optimistic reporting, have jeopardized the entry criteria and predictive value of phase 2 results for phase 3 outcomes. This problem was also clearly illustrated by the major negative phase 3 results for edaravone, AMX0035, and tauroursodeoxycholic acid. Each of these studies was preceded by positive clinical results in small, short trials, which were the primary drivers of the decision to proceed to phase 3.

Basing decisions on biological and mechanistic considerations could significantly reduce the risks of initiating Phase 3. While there is a risk that go-ahead criteria based on biological markers, such as NfL or other mechanistic markers, may not guarantee translation to clinically meaningful Phase 3 results, this approach could help to select better which drugs to test.

Premature Approval of Drugs

Regulatory approval of drugs based on Phase 2 data carries risks and benefits. It is certainly permissible for a company or group to advocate for early access to a drug with a favorable safety and tolerability profile while a confirmatory Phase 3 trial is underway, but approval of a drug based on limited evidence should not be confused with proof of efficacy.

My conclusion One development that seems likely to the author of this post is that future ALS clinical trials will address a smaller (and more homogeneous) population. This will ultimately make it even more difficult to conduct trials when the population with ALS available for trials is already very small.

In recent days, there has been a lot of talk on social networks and mainstream press about a surgical procedure that is being carried out in a Shanghai hospital by a team led by Li Xia from the Faculty of Medicine of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, which could slow the progression of Alzheimer's disease, or even allow a temporary regression, in half of the participants.

Five weeks after the operation, clinical assessments revealed an improvement in cognitive function: the Mini-Mental Status Examination score went from 5 to 7, and the Clinical Dementia Rating-sum of boxes test score went from 10 to 8. The Geriatric Depression Scale score went from 9 to 0. The PET scan examination provided objective proof of this improvement. enter image description here

This recent increase of interest is quite curious because a publication was made in June of this year by the team that innovated with this technique.

This study presents a new surgical procedure, neck shunting to unclog the cerebral lymphatic systems, aimed at improving the elimination of waste accumulated in the glymphatic system of the brain to manage Alzheimer's disease. The glymphatic system facilitates the removal of harmful proteins such as beta-amyloid and tau, the accumulation of which is linked to Alzheimer's disease.

The surgical procedure uses lymphatic-venous anastomosis (LVA) to decompress the cervical lymphatic trunk, allowing cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and residual proteins to flow more efficiently from the brain into the venous system.

It is an extracranial procedure and therefore less invasive and potentially safer than intracranial methods. The surgical treatment, which involves four small incisions in the patient's neck, has been performed on at least 30 patients in two public hospitals in China. Other much larger numbers of patients treated are circulating on the Internet.

Early results indicate that the procedure holds promise as an innovative strategy for the prevention and treatment of Alzheimer's disease.

This surgical technique has not been considered for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, or even the brain in general, but has been used for some time for other diseases such as lymphedema.

The field of lymphedema surgery has seen enormous progress over the years and has been associated with the rapid growth of super microsurgery techniques. A lymphovenous bypass or lymphaticovenular anastomosis requires the identification of residual lymphatic channels and the creation of an anastomosis on a recipient venule, thus allowing the flow of lymphatic fluid and the improvement of a patient's lymphedema.

A technique similar to that of Chinese doctors has long been used in the context of hydrocephalus. The cause of this disease is a blockage of cerebral-spinal fluids which leads to an accumulation of these fluids in the brain. Treatment for hydrocephalus then involves creating a way to drain the excess fluid from the brain.

In the long term, some hydrocephalus patients require a permanent cerebral shunt. This involves placing a ventricular catheter (a silastic tube) into the brain's ventricles to bypass the flow obstruction and drain the excess fluid into other body cavities, where it can be reabsorbed. Most shunts drain fluid into the peritoneal cavity (in the abdomen), but other sites include the right atrium (heart), pleural cavity, or gallbladder.

Hydrocephalus is known to cause Alzheimer's disease. Normal pressure hydrocephalus is common in elderly patients. Curiously, as Western physicians consider this hydrocephalus to be independent of Alzheimer's disease they are reluctant to operate on these patients because they believe the benefits are small.

The Chinese approach is the opposite. She believes that this accumulation of cerebrospinal fluid in Alzheimer's disease should be treated because, at the very least, it can temporarily relieve about two-thirds of patients. This pragmatic approach considers the patients and does not seek to demonstrate whether or not this accumulation causes Alzheimer's disease.

In a series of videos posted last month on social media, Cheng Chongjie, a doctor in Chongqing who adopted the technique following his colleagues, said the operation was effective in more than half of his patients.

"Two national medical centers have performed hundreds of LVA operations, and their results show that this procedure is effective in 60 to 80 percent of patients.


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